Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 13
The Effect of Early Flood Warnings
on Mitigation and Recovery During
the 2010 Pakistan Floods
Ginger Turner, Farah Said, Uzma Afzal, and Karen Campbell
Abstract We estimate the effect of early warnings on the likelihood of households
taking action to mitigate damages before the severe 2010 flood in Punjab, Pakistan.
Using a survey of 640 households conducted after the floods, we find that face-to-
face warnings significantly increase the probability of households taking any pre-
flood mitigation action, while remote warnings such as television and radio
announcements do not have a significant effect on taking any mitigation. For the
most costly mitigation action of reinforcing the house structure, only warning from
government officials or mosques significantly increases the likelihood of action.
Receiving a warning and taking mitigation action reduces the actual loss of house-
hold structure value, and taking pre-flood mitigation action also significantly
increases the likelihood of having recovered household possessions.
Keywords Mitigationaction•Pakistan•Household•Riskperception•Framework
•Remoteinformationsources
13.1
Introduction
In the summer of 2010, unusually heavy monsoon rains left approximately 20 % of
Pakistan underwater and caused USD 10 billion in damages. The flood reached
areas that do not usually experience flooding, and areas that had previously
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