Introduction - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 6

frequency of heat waves. Mean tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall rates are also
projected to increase with continued warming. As science progresses, it is critical to
further tease out natural variations in climate from human-caused changes. There is
mounting evidence that humans may infl uence hazards such as cyclones through a
variety of activities, through particulate pollution as well as greenhouse gases.
In Chap. 3 , Ritesh Gautam describes a hazard that has links both to changes in
climate and human activities - fog. Each year during December and January, dense
fog engulfs the Indo-Gangetic Plains in Southern Asia, extending over a stretch of
1,500 km disrupting airline traffi c and causing massive delays in trains resulting in
signifi cant fi nancial losses and inconveniences. Gautam shows that the fog results
from increasing atmospheric pollution combined with moisture from north-westerlies.
Trends in poor visibility suggest a signifi cant decrease in air quality and an increase
in foggy days. Such results highlight the fact that we face a range of both old and new
hazards, and that the hazards - and the challenges they pose - change and evolve.
Not all extreme events however lead to disasters. Disaster risk is not only a func-
tion of exposure or severity of hazard, but also refl ects the concentration of people
or assets in the area and their vulnerability (UNISDR 2011b ). In Chap. 4 , Ryan
Hogarth, Donovan Campbell, and Johanna Wandel discuss the topic of vulnerability
and its relevance to early warning systems. Vulnerability depends on a range of
physical, social, political, economic, cultural, and institutional characteristics
(UNISDR 2009 ). Vulnerability assessments can help identify which particular
stakeholder groups are most in need of early warning, and which groups are able to
respond to warnings. According to the “behavioral paradigm,” individuals may mis-
interpret hazard risks due to inadequate information or a tendency to be short
sighted, as already mentioned. However, a comparison of the impacts of earthquakes
in Haiti and Chile indicates that even if individuals receive warnings, socio-
economic factors may constrain early action. Structural paradigms and the Pressure
Action Response model provide a framework with which to understand disparities
in vulnerability. The authors review strengths and weaknesses of different methods
used in vulnerability assessments and provide a case study from an ongoing assess-
ment in the Caribbean.

1.4 Critical Components of Early Warning Systems

In Chap. 5 , Ilan Kelman and Michael Glantz defi ne “early warning systems” and
outline questions that need to be considered in early warning system design. An
early warning system should be viewed as a social process, rather than a combina-
tion of technical equipment designed to detect hazards and send details to authori-
ties. In the past, a “Last Mile” approach was applied to early warning system design.
People and communities were only considered toward the end of system design.
Kelman and Glantz argue that a “First Mile” approach should be used to involve
communities from the outset.
Further, early warning systems should be considered a continuous process -
embedded in day-to-day functioning of the society rather than springing to life