Applications of Medium Range Probabilistic Flood Forecast for Societal Benefi ts: Lessons Learnt from Bangladesh - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 173

Discussion of options with local communities,
CBOs, local working group members, networks

Incorporated
into
customized
local model

Flood forecast
issued for two
boundary
locations

Communication
to Disaster
Emergency
Group

Communication
to project
partners

Information to relief agencies
about the extent of flooding

Communication
to stakeholders
and local DMC
members

24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 30 Jul 2 Aug

21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul

Relief
distribution
started in
affected
locations

Community in
low lands
reserved their
food,drinking
water,fodder
requirements

Local Disaster
Management
Committee
and
Volunteers
prepared for
rescue

Aid agencies
arranged
logistics and
begin dialogue
with district
administration

Local
institutions
prepared
response and
relief plans

Flood water
exceeded
danger level
on 28 July

Low lying
areas are
flooded on 29
July

Fig. 9.8 User response during the 2007 fl ood. The forecast issued on 21 July showing greater
chance of exceeding danger level in Brahmaputra from 28 July 2007 (SHOUHARDO I project
document)

9.5.1 Response of National Institutions to Flood Forecasts

The FFWC incorporated the 1-10 day probabilistic forecasts to produce water level
forecasts for many locations along Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers well in advance.
The national level disaster emergency response group, consisting of International
Non-Governmental Organization (INGO), Ministry of Food and Disaster
Management and international organizations, prepared emergency response plans,
logistics for preparedness and relief planning in advance. National level NGO net-
work and INGOs prepared localized warning messages and disseminated them to
their counterparts at the local level. National level service organizations like the
Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) prepared rehabilitation plans in
advance. Figure 9.8 shows the daily response after getting the medium range fl ood
forecasting from the national level.

9.5.2 Response of Local Institutions to Flood Forecasts

Based on the forecast information provided by the FFWC, district-level service
organizations in partnership with NGOs communicated 1-10 day forecast 5 days in
advance to their respective communities. Local NGOs and implementing partners
prepared evacuation and response plans to protect lives and livelihoods. District
level relief and emergency organizations planned to mobilize resources for relief