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In-Depth Information
It is envisaged that in the near future all the dotted line agencies will backstop the
forecast system and process, and that the core government agencies of Bangladesh
will develop forecast information products to interpret and disseminate information
nationwide. At the local level, the Upzila (i.e. a sub-district level) disaster manage-
ment committee chaired by the Upzila chairman discusses regularly and validates
the information and usefulness of long-lead forecast information products. Social
factors, design of climate forecast products to suit users' needs, communication of
the forecast products, sector system models (crop-climate models), decision behav-
iour, institutional constraints and social settings in which the decisions are made
were considered to institutionalize the system. At the same time, a continuous dia-
logue mechanism has been established among climate information producers, inter-
mediary research organizations, policy-makers and end-users.
9.3
Decision Support System of FFWC
The FFWC of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) use, decision
support system developed in ArcView GIS, which integrates the database, modelling
system, model outputs and dissemination of forecasts. Flood Watch and the MIKE 11
modelling systems have been used for fl ood forecasting using 1-10 day probabilistic
data to produce 1-10 day forecasts. The prediction generated 51 sets of ensemble
forecasts for a particular day at each of the discharge prediction points (Fig. 9.4 ).
The coloured lines represent the 51 ensemble members. The bold black line indicates
the observed values of discharge measured at Bahadurabad (see Fig. 9.4 ).
Using 51 sets of data for simulation and further processing and analyses of the
results is not practical from an operational viewpoint of a fl ood forecasting system;
hence it was decided to carry out selective simulations (3 times, −1 Stdv, +1 Stdv
and Ensemble Mean instead of 51 sets) and prepare the forecast products within a
Fig. 9.4 1-10 day discharge forecasts at Brahmaputra river (RIMES-CFAN model result)
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