Applications of Medium Range Probabilistic Flood Forecast for Societal Benefi ts: Lessons Learnt from Bangladesh - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 160

Chapter 9
Applications of Medium Range Probabilistic
Flood Forecast for Societal Benefi ts: Lessons
Learnt from Bangladesh
S. H. M. Fakhruddin
Abstract It has long been recognized that if society could have advanced information
on weather, the adverse effects associated with extreme weather could be mini-
mized. The prevalence of traditional forecast practices in various parts of the world
refl ects the demand for long-range forecast schemes to manage uncertainties associ-
ated with it. Recent advancements in long-lead fl ood prediction programmes in
Bangladesh promise huge benefi ts for society and have resulted in strong inter-
agency cooperation and networking to facilitate the development of fl ood forecast-
ing schemes and their application at various levels. During the 2007 monsoon,
signifi cant efforts were made to further refi ne the forecasting scheme and develop
institutional networking and coordination mechanisms through a series of train-
ings at national, district and local levels for interagency collaboration and capacity
building to facilitate the generation, interpretation and communication of forecasts
for at-risk communities. The value of 1-10 day long-lead fl ood forecast products
has been demonstrated to reduce disaster risk at the community level and has proven
a huge societal benefi t saving life and property. This chapter describes lessons learnt
on institutional and community aspects of 1-10 day forecasts in the context of
severe fl ood experiences in Bangladesh in 2007 and 2008.
Keywords Flood forecasts • Ensembles • Dissemination and community application