Climate Change and Early Warning Systems for Wildland Fire - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 129

based on long-term fi re danger statistics, and to justify increased funding during
times of wildfi re disaster. Fire danger rating research has been ongoing since the
1920s, resulting in operational fi re danger rating systems being available for about
four decades in Canada (Stocks et al. 1989 ), the United States (Deeming et al.
1977 ), and Australia (Luke and McArthur 1978 ). Numerous other weather-based
systems and indices have been developed worldwide, although the Canadian Forest
Fire Weather Index (FWI) System remains the most widely used fi re danger rating
system internationally (Table 7.2 ). Current fi re danger rating systems in the world
are wide-ranging in their scientifi c/technical basis and operation; they are discussed
in this chapter in general terms only.
Fire danger rating systems were primarily designed to support landscape-level
decision-making in fi re management. Continuing research in this fi eld has also led
to more detailed, smaller-scale models of fi re behavior, fi re spread, and fi re effects
that simulate at the forest stand level. Despite the considerable progress that has
been made in fi re danger rating and related sciences in the last eight to nine decades,
less than half of the world's countries has a national fi re danger rating system in
place to support fi re management. Most countries that do not have an operational
fi re danger rating system are in that situation because of a lack of institutional and/
or fi nancial capacity to build a national system. Ironically, fi re danger rating systems
need not be expensive, as very simple and reliable systems can be developed from
existing science and technology with minimal capital costs. The only real expense
necessary is the cost of technology transfer, specifi cally training to use fi re danger
information in fi re management operations.
Using real-time actual weather data, fi re danger rating systems normally provide
a 4- to 6-h advanced warning of the highest fi re danger for any particular day that
the weather data is supplied. However, extended early warning (i.e., 1-2 weeks) can
be provided by using forecasted conditions from advanced numerical weather mod-
els. This extra time allows for greater coordination of resource-sharing and mobili-
zation within and between countries. Early warning systems are usually comprised
of a number of different short-term (1 day to 2 weeks in advance) and long-term
(seasonal fi re danger forecasts estimated many months in advance) products that are
based primarily on predicted fi re danger. Early warning products are typically
enhanced with remotely sensed spectral data on land cover and fuel conditions that
refl ect different fuel types and fl ammability. Near-term early warning products are
also usually enhanced with satellite-detected hot spots as these indicate current
active fi res (prescribed burning and wildfi res) that are ignition sources that could
potentially become disaster fi res. Long-term early warning products provide fi re
agencies with information in a large-scale management context, i.e., how does the
extended outlook for the current fi re season compare to the experiences of previous
fi re seasons? Short-term early warning at the 1-2 week scale is information useful
for strategic decision-making such resource-sharing between countries, or across
large landscapes. Short-term early warning at the scale of 1-3 days is most useful
for tactical decision-making such as resource mobilization within country, between
priority fi res, or to different sectors of a fi re.