Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
In a 2004 paper published in
the journal Science, and en-
titled, The Scientific Consen-
sus on Climate Change, Naomi
Oreskes argued that there
was a clear and compelling
consensus within the scientific
community on climate change.
Oreskes's research was inspired
by the continued media depic-
tions of the uncertainties sur-
rounding the science of climate
change. Oreskes's study looked
at 928 peer-reviewed scientific
papers that were published
between 1993 and 2003. The
study classified these papers on
a grid ranging from 'explicit
endorsement' of the position
that recent observed patterns
of warming in global average temperatures are a result of human-induced climate change, to the
'explicit rejection' of this position. Oreskes's study revealed that 75 per cent of the papers analysed
either explicitly or implicitly endorsed the theory of human-induced climate change, and that none
of the papers disagreed with this position.
Oreskes's intervention into the climate change debate raises some interesting questions about
the nature of scientific consensus. For example, do the number of people involved in a consensus
add to its strength, or should the strength of a consensus be measured by the quality of scientific
research and theories that support it? It could be, for example, that the 928 papers reflect a kind of
herd mentality, in and through which scientists follow the established studies and findings of a few,
and thus artificially inflate the apparent strength of the consensus. Furthermore, Oreskes herself
acknowledges that the consensus that she observes could be wrong. What is clear from Oreskes's
study is that the uncertainties that surround the science of climate change appear to be more about
its precise implications than the question of whether it is a product of human interventions in the
Earth's atmosphere.
Source: Wikimedia Creative Commons, Ragesoss
Key readings
Oreskes, N. (2004) 'The scientific consensus on climate change', Science306: 1686
Oreskes, N. and Conway, E.M. (2010) Merchants of Doubt, Bloomsbury Press, London
Watch Oreskes talk about the scientific consensus on climate change at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=XXyTpY0NCp0
(accessed 5 July 2013)
