Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
For neo-Malthusians such as Robert Kaplan there is a clear connection between the availability of
resources (such as fuel and food) and human conflict. In his analysis of resource struggles in West
Africa, he describes the ways in which population growth and the increasing scarcity of key resources
has led to a rise in warfare and the unravelling of key social institutions (the so-called scarce resource
war hypothesis) (Kaplan, 1994). In his recent analysis of so-called nature wars and resource conflicts,
however, Le Billon claims that the relations between resource scarcity and conflict are complex and
determined by important geographical factors (see Le Billon, 2001). According to Le Billon, the
emergence of resource conflict, and the form that that conflict takes, is determined by the form and
geographical location of the resource in question. One situation that does appear to result in the
frequent emergence of resource conflict is when one state is overly dependent on a single resource
(such as oil, diamonds or timber). In such instances it is relatively easy for a ruling elite to control
that resource and become the primary beneficiaries of its exploitation (as we have recently see in
relation to the Gaddafi regime's exploitation of Libyan oil). In such circumstances, it is common for
rebel militias to engage in warfare in order to control the resource and either redistribute the wealth
that is generated by its extraction or cement power and revenue for themselves.
The geographical location of a resource can also play a part in determining the types of conflict
that may emerge around it. Resources tend to take two main forms: 1) point resources, which are
concentrated in a small number of locations and are relatively easy to control by a ruling elite (such
as gold mines and oil fields); and 2) diffuse resources, which are spread over wide areas and are
difficult to effectively defend by state or military officials (such as agricultural land and forests). Le
Billon argues that point resources tend to be associated with conflicts that attempt to overthrow
the government, as gaining access to them means directly engaging the regimes that control them
in something of an all-or-nothing conflict. Diffuse resources are, however, much more likely to be
associated with warlordism (whereby military leaders establish their enclaves in an existing state),
or, when the resource is located near the territorial edge of a state, with the formation of breakaway
states. What Le Billon's work illustrates is that there is no simple connection between resources and
conflict. First, it is clear that resource scarcity is not the only driver of conflict: the desire for power
and wealth are also strong motivators. Second, it is also apparent that the type of conflict that
emerges around resources is conditioned by the prevailing economic and political situation of the
geographical region in question.
Key reading
Le Billon, P. (2001) 'The political ecology of war: Natural resources and armed conflicts', Political Geography
20: 561-584
not believe that humanity is heading towards an
environmental resource tragedy. While cornu-
copian thinking ranges very widely, it is
characterized by two key features: 1) a belief that
increases in population lead to the discovery and
development of more resources; and 2) that the
2.3.2 Cornucopians and the Chicago
Boys
At the other end of the spectrum to Malthus
and neo-Malthusians are the so-called cornu-
copians. Unlike Malthusians, cornucopians do
