Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
2
CHAPTER TWO
Resources
Oil and water
increasing demand for resources), while Simon
wagered that the prices for these metals would
decrease in real terms (as you would expect if you
believed that population growth would lead to
social innovation and the rising availability of
resources) (Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1996). Simon
ultimately won the wager of $1000: while the
global population increased rapidly during the
1980s (by somewhere in the region of 800 million
people), the adjusted prices of three of the five
commodities went down over the same period
(Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1996). Ehrlich wrote Simon
a cheque for $576.07 to settle the bet (a settlement
relative to the prices that went up and down),
which in some ways actually proved both parties
to be right and wrong at the same time.
This story is significant because it provides
important insights into the nature of one of the
most pressing challenges and hotly debated issues
associated with the Anthropocene: namely the
long-term availability of environmental resources.
One of the key ways in which the human influence
over the environment can be seen in the
Anthropocene is in relation to our collective use
of the various resources that the planet provides
us with. Environmental resources include the
metals that were part of the Simon-Ehrlich wager,
but also include other minerals and compounds
that are mined and drilled for (such as coal, oil,
natural gas and aggregates). These resources are
used to provide the energy that is needed by society
2.1 INTRODUCTION: THE
SIMON-EHRLICH WAGER
The year is 1980 and two prominent academics
are about to engage in a rather unusual exercise: a
wager. One of these academics was the American
biologist Paul Ehrlich. In 1968 Ehrlich had pub-
lished an influential book entitled
The Population
Bomb
, in which he predicted that rising levels of
global population would lead to shortages in
the availability of resources (such as food and
energy) and significant forms of human suffering
(Ehrlich, 1968). The other academic involved
in this wager was Julian L. Simon. Simon was a
professor of business administration, who was
best known for his economic analysis of the
relationship between population and resources.
Simon's work contradicted that of Ehrlich to the
extent that he claimed that population growth did
not lead to resource scarcity. Moreover, Simon
claimed that population growth provided a basis
for renewed social innovation and for making
more resources available (Simon, 1981). In order
to resolve their academic dispute Simon proposed
a wager to Ehrlich. The wager involved Ehrlich
(actually he and his colleagues John Harte and John
Holdren) betting on the price of five commodity
metals (chromium, copper, nickel, tin and
tungsten). Ehrlich's bet was that by 1990 the prices
for these commodities would have increased
(as you would expect if population growth was
