Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Percentage change in the intensity of 1-day rainfall totals with a 20-year return period for the 2090 climate relative to that of 1980
Region
mean
29.0
17.7
66.5
363.4
388.6
9.0
16.3
3.7
7.7
3.5
4.3
21.9
North West
median
25.6
16.7
44.2
68.6
222.4
10.4
13.0
0.4
-1.8
3.5
3.9
17.2
mean
37.7
9.4
29.3
82.9
185.2
20.4
20.5
9.7
-8.2
0.3
-4.0
35.9
Central QLD
median
40.7
12.1
28.5
64.0
101.1
21.2
20.4
10.7
-12.3
-0.8
-6.8
35.3
mean
37.8
12.5
34.9
2644.7
367.4
7.7
17.5
-8.9
-4.7
6.6
19.2
23.3
North QLD
median
34.3
7.2
40.7
176.0
145.2
11.8
19.5
-8.9
-4.3
0.9
17.1
18.2
mean
38.9
28.3
24.9
74.0
90.7
18.9
14.6
-1.0
-1.5
-21.8
-8.3
24.1
QLD East Coast
median
58.1
27.6
30.6
64.0
74.7
21.2
18.8
3.0
-19.1
-23.8
-10.2
25.4
mean
66.8
26.6
21.0
35.2
43.6
26.4
8.0
18.6
4.7
-28.8
-11.2
13.3
South East QLD
median
59.6
24.8
18.4
30.3
38.6
22.3
2.2
18.6
9.2
-26.0
-10.6
12.0
mean
51.2
16.2
16.1
19.0
21.5
26.4
20.5
22.8
20.5
-9.1
14.7
10.6
Eastern NSW
median
45.1
11.1
14.0
13.0
21.7
24.1
20.3
19.0
13.5
-13.9
14.2
-1.2
mean
34.9
14.6
54.0
51.8
25.0
31.8
21.2
26.1
17.6
-1.9
3.9
22.7
Western NSW
median
28.9
9.7
35.5
40.8
21.9
32.1
23.1
21.2
7.6
-3.9
-0.5
28.0
mean
30.2
28.4
3.3
25.1
25.9
26.2
31.6
19.3
26.0
29.6
6.2
-1.4
Victoria
median
28.9
20.3
2.1
32.1
24.5
27.5
26.8
17.5
23.1
24.2
1.8
-4.1
mean
13.7
24.2
-6.6
30.3
25.5
37.8
30.9
18.0
35.4
37.7
11.1
7.2
Tasmania
median
15.0
29.4
-7.5
28.7
26.9
35.5
30.7
19.7
43.4
36.7
0.4
7.2
mean
27.0
23.9
23.1
31.8
48.1
23.8
22.4
29.6
16.3
-4.6
3.7
22.2
South West
median
20.0
22.5
14.5
24.9
38.2
23.2
16.7
26.0
5.6
-7.0
3.4
17.5
mean
3.5
44.5
14.5
26.4
72.7
3.3
3.7
36.8
34.7
13.1
6.5
28.0
South West WA
median
-2.9
46.8
25.4
11.0
54.9
6.0
3.4
41.5
23.1
7.0
0.2
22.6
Source: CSIRO
Note
a Based on 12 climate models driven by the high (A2) emissions scenario. Decreases are shown in bold text. From Rafter and Abbs (2009). The
large increases (exceeding 100 per cent) simulated by the GFDL model in the northern regions are likely due to a poor it of the rainfall data to
the generalized extreme value model in late twenty-irst century, which was also found by Kharin et al. (2007).
