Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.1
Average number of days per year above 35°C at selected sites for the current
climate (average for 1971-2000) and for 2070
Site
Current
2070
Adelaide
17
47
Alice Springs
90
182
Brisbane
1
21
Broome
54
281
Cairns
3.8
96
Canberra
5
26
Darwin
11
308
Dubbo
25
87
Hobart
1.4
3.4
Melbourne
9
26
Mildura
32
76
Perth
28
67
St George
47
135
Sydney
3.5
12
Wilcannia
63
129
Source: CSIRO
Note
a Based on the A1FI emissions scenario, and the 90th percentile (warmest 10 per cent)
of 23 climate models (CSIRO and BoM, 2007).
Extreme rainfall
Changes in extreme daily rainfall, with return periods of 10-50 years, have been
estimated by Rafter and Abbs (2009) for 11 Australian regions for 2050 and
2090, based on 12 climate models driven by the high (A2) emissions scenario.
The global warming by 2090 in these models ranges from 2.5-3.7°C. By 2090
( Table 3.2 ), most models simulate increases in the intensity of the 1-in-20-year
event in most regions.
Drought
There is medium confidence that, globally, droughts will intensify in the twenty-
first century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or
increased evapotranspiration (IPCC, 2012). Drought-affected areas also will
likely increase in extent (IPCC, 2007).
Drought occurrence is projected to increase over most of Australia, but particu-
larly in south-western Australia (Hennessy et al., 2008; Kirono et al., 2011).
 
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