Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Present
2050 High
~.,
..
.~~-};
"
.,".
..~.,
60
30
100
Days
Figure 2.8
Australian Alps: Current and projected future days of snow cover
Source: Hennessy et al., 2008b
Note
a The 2050 high case is an underestimate of the
1
4°C GW case.
response is associated with the southward movement of the southern hemisphere
storm track (Frederiksen et al., 2011). Changes in wave climate on the east coast of
Australia have been found to reflect the changes seen in winds along this coastline
and show a small decline in mean and storm waves for 2081-100 relative to
1981-2000 (Hemer et al., 2011).
Conclusion
In a Four Degree World, the effects of climate change in Australia will be
dramatic. They are projected to include:
●
temperature increases of about 3°C to 5°C in coastal areas and 4°C to 6°C
in inland areas;
●
likely declines of annual rainfall in southern Australia, particularly in winter,
of up to about 50 per cent but uncertain rainfall changes in other regions;
●
marked increases of potential evaporation of about 5 per cent to 20 per cent;
●
snow cover duration falling to zero in most alpine regions; and
●
sea level rise of up to about 1.1m in 2100, increasing to more than 7m over
subsequent centuries even for no further global warming.
In the broader region (South-East Asia and the South Pacific), large changes
in climate would also be expected at four degrees of global warming, although
the tropical and mainly maritime climates of this region would lead to slightly
less warming than over continental Australia. Perkins et al.
(2012) give climate
model-based projections for much of this region (for a case approaching 4°C
