Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
as a stronger national Renewable Energy Target to reinforce this shift. Together,
these measures could effect an emissions saving of around 170 Mt CO
2
-e in
greenhouse emissions by 2020.
However, it is unlikely that it is unlikely that a mitigation target of
2
45 per
cent could be achieved based on domestic effort alone in the brief time remaining
before the end of 2020. Therefore it is important also to consider supplementary
measures that would make achievement of that target possible, while encouraging
the development of a domestic trajectory of rapid decarbonization. The shortfall -
up to half the proposed target - might need to be met through the acquisition of
certified carbon credits from overseas markets. The price of carbon in the European
emissions trading scheme has plunged in recent years and at time of writing was
around AUD$6.5/tonne. If fully half the total 45 per cent emissions reduction sought
by 2020 were bought, this could cost between approximately AUD$800 million and
AUD$2.45 billion per annum (averaged annual cost) by 2020, depending on the
market - here estimated to be between AUD$6.50 and AUD$20. (This approach
is not seen a longer term solution to Australia's mitigation challenge.)
Even so, Australia will only contribute effectively to keeping global emissions
below the 2°C 'guardrail' if its total emissions do not exceed its remaining national
carbon budget (derived from the global carbon budget). Australia's national
carbon budget will be exhausted in approximately one to three years given current
(estimated 2012) emission rates. Only by cutting its national emissions by around 20
per cent of total emissions each year could Australia to stay within this budget. Such
a rate of reduction is clearly not feasible given the carbon-intensity of Australia's
economy. Nevertheless, any discussion of an effective and equitable 2020 target
must address this larger issue. The recommended mitigation target of
2
45 per cent,
with equal annual reductions beginning in 2014, would see Australia overshoot its
carbon budget by some 1.7 billion tonnes by 2020. The resulting 'carbon deficit'
needs to be offset through the acquisition of carbon credits in a program separate
from any acquisitions necessary to ensure the
2
45 per cent target is achieved. This
program of 'budget-balancing' acquisition would need to continue while Australia
continues to emit greenhouse gases in excess of its national carbon budget.
Separately, in order to reinforce this abatement trajectory, policies would need
to be adopted which will eliminate a major source of projected emissions growth
over the next few decades. Increased exploitation of coal and gas resources for
export is projected to be the main source of emissions increase for Australia over
coming decades. A cap on the development of these resources, and their rapid
phase out, would not only stop additional emissions but also reduce Australia's
economic vulnerability to the inevitable global shift away from fossil fuels, which
will occur as international concern about global warming intensifies.
These measures would require considerable political courage and will, multi-
party support and a vigorous campaign of public education to ensure their
legitimacy and success. Together, they would enable Australia to meet an
ambitious emissions reduction target of at least
2
250 million tons per annum
CO
2
-e in domestic greenhouse emissions, or
2
45 per cent below 2000 levels, by
2020.
