Conclusion - Four Degrees of Global Warming - page 227

Compounding crises
The threats of a Four Degree World add to major problems already confronting
the planet. Other pressures (such as population increase, ocean acidification, biodi-
versity loss resulting from other causes, and economic and political instability) will
accelerate and intensify the already complex impacts of climate change - possibly
distracting from efforts at mitigation and adaptation. Given the interrelatedness
of these impacts across global as well as regional, national and local scales, it is
likely that - as warming continues - profound, compounding global crises will
have severe and unpredictable ramifications for Australia's economy and society.
Can we adapt?
Current mitigation efforts are insufficient to hold global average warming below
2°C and preparation for a Two Degree World is certainly required. It is uncertain
how far adaptation could ever go towards successfully reducing our vulnerability
to a Four Degree World with higher temperatures and wilder weather. A range of
scenarios depending on different responses by the state, industry and individuals
has been imagined for Australia. Australia has considerable economic and social
capacities to facilitate adaptation to some shocks, as described above, but the
more extreme the warming, the greater our vulnerability and the greater the
certainty that adaptation will be insufficient to protect us from hard times.
How should we respond? Australia's responsibility
Global warming is a collective action problem requiring urgent, effective
and equitable international co-operation. Article 3.1 of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires Parties to
the Convention to protect the climate system 'on the basis of equity and in
accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities', but what this mean in practice remains uncertain. The fundamental
question for Australia remains: what is our fair share?
Australia's current targets
In 2012, Australia emitted some 552 million tonnes (Mt) CO 2 -e (DCCEE,
2012). 1 It ranks 12th among the planet's 195-plus nations for its domestic green-
house gas emissions and contributes some 1.3 per cent of total global emissions
(EDGAR, 2013). 2 It is 14th for domestic CO 2 emissions alone (Olivier et al.,
2012: 12). 3 Its per capita emissions are among the world's highest (Olivier et
al., 2012: 29). Further, when emissions associated with Australian coal and gas
exports are added to its domestic greenhouse emissions, Australia is the source of
over 4 per cent of total global emissions (see below). In all, Australia is a major
national emitter, a very significant contributor to global warming, and should
shoulder part of the additional reduction burden associated with bridging the
'ambition gap' and preserving the 2°C 'guardrail'.
In 2009 Australia adopted an unconditional short-term emissions target - to
cut national greenhouse emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.