Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 14.1 Australia in a Four Degree World
Average
temperature
Inland regions - summer warming of between 3.5 and 7 Celsius;
- winter warming of between 3 and 5 Celsius
Southern and coastal regions - summer warming between 3 and 5 Celsius;
- winter warming of between 2 and 4 Celsius
Average
rainfall
Very broad range of changes across continent
- summer rainfall changing by between 1 50% and 2 50% across
Australia
Southern third of continent - likely decrease in rainfall, typically
around 2 40% to 1 10%
Drought
Likely increased frequency, area and intensity (e.g. up to five times
more frequent droughts in the south and west of Australia)
By 2070, the 1-in-20 year drought pattern for the 20th Century
will become a 1-in-10 year drought over the Murray Darling Basin,
Victoria, east NSW, Tasmania and south-west Western Australia
Snow cover
Snow seasons greatly reduced, with falls possibly reduced to zero across
much of the existing alpine range
Sea level rise
Increase of up to 1.1 metres by 2100 and more than 7 metres in the
longer run even if no further warming.
Increased inundation of low-lying coastal land and increased shore
erosion
Extreme
high and low
temperatures
Substantial increase in frequency of high temperature days (over
35°C) by 2070: For instance the number of days over 35°C for:
- Sydney would increase from 3.5 to 12 days,
- Canberra 5 to 26 days,
- Melbourne 9 to 26 days
- Adelaide from 17 to 47
- Perth from 28 to 67 days
- Brisbane from 1 to 21
Extreme
rainfall
Increased rainfall variability; increase in frequency of extreme rainfall
events
Sea-level
surges
Storm surges that now happen every 10 years will happen every 10
days in 2100, and even more frequently around Sydney.
Tropical
cyclones
Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase,
although increases may not occur in all ocean basins. It is likely
that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or
remain essentially unchanged. Around Australia, there is a southward
movement of 100km in the genesis and decay regions
Terrestrial
ecosystems
and biota
Gradual and abrupt changes to patterns and levels of temperature and
rainfall will lead to changes to the boundaries of ecosystems.
Some ecosystems - such as alpine systems and wet tropical rainforests
- may disappear and be replaced with entirely new ones.
Changes in drivers and stressors such as water availability and weather
extremes (rain, snow, fire, flood) may significantly transform some
ecosystems and influence the health, distribution, and survival, of
plant and animal species
 
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