Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Consistent with the nature of the state and public policy, there is no
adaptation
policy
. Rather, adaptation is a series of market opportunities: for insurers providing
services to the affluent and extracting rents from residual markets; property
developers for whom the turnover in stock caused by fires, floods and coastal
erosion generates unprecedented demand, constrained only by a contraction of
the market able to pay; for water traders selling water across sectors in an increas-
ingly oligopolistic market; for food wholesalers able to manipulate expectations
of scarcity and bottlenecks to gain higher prices with no changes in productivity.
Yet there are market risks too: for suppliers of goods with high capital costs the
costs of maintaining assets becomes too high, and a number of new entrants
into urban water, transport and power markets go bankrupt, leaving customers
stranded and causing large losses to shareholders. Community service providers
seek to meet many social needs, for example for education, health care, housing,
power, water and food, yet their ability to do this is undermined by higher costs,
a contracting base of funders and a diminished willingness on the part of those
who can afford to support their work.
Cities
are increasingly characterized by a hyper-affluent inner city, rapid growth
along the landward fringes and social marginalization increasing with distance
away from the centre. Demand for inner-city housing rises as coastal properties
are progressively devalued and some of the affluent classes seek urban lifestyles,
at least during the working week. With a higher density of wealthy customers,
private transport providers supply the inner urban market with trains, trams
and buses, such that car ownership becomes a sign of poverty. Transport from
middle and outer suburbs is met by private vehicle ownership for those who can
afford the fuel and tolls. For those who cannot, a sparse and unreliable network
of co-operatively owned bus routes is the only means of mobility. There is a
contour of mortality and morbidity, which rises with distance from the centre.
Fire proofing the fringes has turned green wedges into extensive fire breaks, heat
absorbing surfaces abound, access to healthcare is minimal, heat stress increases
as air conditioning and retrofitting houses are beyond the means of many people,
and nutrition declines as people on lower incomes cannot compete with the
wealthy in markets for healthy foods. Social problems abound with increasing
homelessness leading to increased mortality during heatwaves.
Coasts
are almost everywhere in retreat, and there is no planning response.
Regarding
rural and regional areas
, small towns continue to decline as some
burn too often, others lose population due to the demise of irrigated agriculture
and an increase in the size of dryland farms. Some areas with amenity and low
fire risk grow as the rich seek to escape urban living which, in summer at least,
reaches unbearable temperatures.
Concerning
utilities and water
, scarcity of water and an open market mean that
cities buy water, and irrigated agriculture has largely ceased, apart from high-
value commodities such as fruits, nuts and boutique dairy. Both domestic water
and electricity are expensive for the consumer, exacerbating the health risks of
heatwaves. Water rationing is becoming commonplace. Electricity is generated
primarily by fossil fuels. A move to renewable energy was unsuccessful as the
