Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
mood and behaviour (Kjellstrom et al., 2009). Economic productivity would also
decline, and may do so precipitously at the higher temperatures not previously
modelled.
There is one glint of silver lining to this cloud: there will be fewer skiing
injuries - indeed by later in the century, there would be no such injuries on
Australia's former natural ski slopes.
Other extreme weather events
Similar escalations in deaths, injuries and major health events would accompany
the analogous increases in other extreme weather events that would be
associated with background warming in Australia, and amplified by those warmer
circumstances.
There would be major differences between geographic regions in frequency
and severity of each type of event. Comparison of the projected numbers of
people affected by flooding in Southern (Mediterranean) Europe versus the
United Kingdom in a 4-5°C warmer world indicates - though not as a direct
climate-zone analogue - the extent of the potential low-high latitude between
major Australian regions in the probable impacts of flooding in a Four Degree
World. Serious warming-related flooding in Southern Europe is progressively
reduced to zero as the temperature rises, while it rises sevenfold in the northern
UK (Ciscar et al., 2011). In Australia the most relevant focus of comparison may
be between the north east (increasingly flood-prone) and the south and south
west regions (increasingly drought-prone).
Infectious diseases
Many infectious disease agents, and the other animals or insects that respectively
either host or transmit some of them, are sensitive to climatic conditions. It is
common experience in Australia that salmonella food poisoning occurs much
more often in the summer months. The risks of transmission of food-borne
and water-borne infectious diseases will generally rise at higher temperatures -
especially for infections caused by bacterial or protozoal (multicellular) organisms
with metabolism and replication that are temperature-dependent.
The climatic and environmental influences on various of Australia's indig-
enous mosquito -borne viral diseases, such as Ross River fever and Murray Valley
Encephalitis (diseases with natural animal hosts and complex ecology), are yet
to be fully elucidated. For some other mosquito-borne infections, such as dengue
fever (currently largely confined to north-east Queensland), we already know
much. For dengue, the approximate estimation from modelling future changes
associated with a business-as-usual global climate change scenario is that the
geographic region suitable for transmission may extend southwards, thereby
increasing the population at risk of exposure from around half a million to five
to eight million Australians by the end of the twenty-first century (Bambrick et
al., 2008) (see
Table 9.1
).
