Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
are already available for investigation. These examples illustrate that such
change can involve serious challenges, risks and benefits. They also reinforce
that climate change and adaptation are not happening in isolation; there is
already a complex collection of change processes in play. Consequently, research
and policy attention needs to be paid to transformational adaptation - not to
promote it, but rather to establish a decision-environment that supports it and
reduces risk.
Finally, it should be recognized that 'adaptation' is an ongoing process that is
part of good risk management, whereby drivers of risk are identified and their
likely impacts on systems under alternative management are assessed and acted
upon (Howden et
al., 2007b). In this respect, adaptation to climate change is
similar to adaptation to climate variability, changes in market forces (cost/price
ratios, consumer demands etc.), institutional or other factors. Isolating climate
change from other drivers of risk may be helpful during the initial stages of
assessment when awareness of the relative importance of this risk factor is still
low. Operationally, however, translating adaptation options into adaptation
actions requires consideration of a more comprehensive risk management
framework (Meinke et
al., 2006). This would allow exploration of quantified
scenarios dealing with the key sources of risk, providing more effective decision-
making and learning for farmers, policymakers and researchers: an increase in the
'climate knowledge' (Howden et
al
.
, 2007b). There are consequently substantial
research and policy challenges in ensuring that Australia remains a sustainable
cornerstone of domestic and global food security in a changing Four Degree
World.
Notes
1
The equation is applied to either daily GCM (CSIRO Mk3.5) output for each site or
to historical climate where the minimum and maximum temperature are increased by
the same amount as the changes in the GCM runs following the method of Reyenga
et al. (2000).
2
The scenarios considered for 2030 were based on future global climate models from
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report simulating
low (temperature increase of 0.45°C), medium (temperature increase of 1.03°C) and
high (temperature increase of 1.6°C) levels of global warming, following the method
of IPCC (2007a). The 'dry extreme' scenario was based on the second driest result
from the 'high global warming' model; the 'median' scenario was based on the median
result from the 'medium global warming' model; and the 'wet extreme' scenario was
based on the second wettest result from the 'high global warming' model (Chiew et al.
2008).
References
ABARES. 2012. Agricultural commodity statistics 2012. Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics, Canberra. Available online at
www.daff.gov.au/abares/
publications
[accessed 25 July 2013].
ABS. 2008. Population Projections: Australia 2006-2101.
http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/
abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0
[accessed February 2013].
