Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
to global implications such as those demonstrated recently, where climatic and
other disruptions in key grain exporting nations generated major price spikes,
leading to social disruption and increased malnourishment in developing nations
(Gregory and Ingram, 2008).
Adaptation and mitigation
There is a range of adaptations that can and will be employed to counter some of
sions of existing approaches to manage climate risk and enhance production but
some will need proactive investment such as development of climate change-
ready crop varieties (Stokes and Howden, 2010). In conjunction with this will be
the need to increase the adaptive capacity of agricultural sector decision-makers
(Nelson et al., 2008; Crimp et
al., 2010).
The prospect of global warming of 4°C or more is likely to instigate major
efforts to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions and this effort may restrict the
application of some greenhouse gas emission-intensive adaptations, such as
increased nitrogenous fertilizer applications to counter reductions in grain
protein (Howden et al., 2010). There may also be pressure to reduce demand for
products that have high levels of embedded greenhouse gas emissions, such as
red meat. Similarly, agricultural lands can be seen as an option for 'emergency
drawdown' of atmospheric CO
2
concentrations or for production of biofuels, and
these influences could have substantial impacts on Australian food production.
Conclusion
Average global warming of 4°C or more will likely have profound impacts on
Australian agriculture. Changes in average temperature in conjunction with
associated changes in temperature extremes, rainfall, evaporation and floods and
drought will likely reduce production of the major commodity groups, increase
the variability of production and impact on product quality. In addition, such
climate changes will likely change the location of agriculture, particularly at
the dry and wet margins of existing activities, as well as increase risks of some
forms of natural resource degradation such as soil erosion. Changes in other
factors such as crop diseases are more ambiguous whilst some issues such as
dryland salinity may benefit from such climate change. These climate change
impacts will interact with other change drivers, making long-term predictions
of the future state of agriculture highly uncertain. Effective adaptations to these
climate changes will involve a range of technical, managerial, community and
institutional responses, including building the capacity to access, implement and
evaluate the effectiveness of adaptations.
There is a general view that farmers and farming systems in Australia are highly
adaptive, developing management, technologies and other responses to a range
of challenges and opportunities. Often, these adaptations have been in the face
of fairly well-defined, single factors, such as changes in relative price of inputs or
