Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Food security exists when people have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food prefer-
ences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 2002). Food security is generally
considered to have four dimensions: availability, accessibility, utilization and
stability. While food security currently is not critical for most Australians
(Friel, 2010), it is of concern globally and it affects future national prospects
for agriculture, so some broadscale global trends in food security are addressed
here, focusing on crops, as these are critical components of both the national
and international food systems. For example, in a recent report produced by
the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(UNESCAP, 2009) it was identified that
climate change holds the potential to radically alter agro-ecosystems in the
coming decades and there is already evidence of devastating crop failures.
Predictions concerning food production vary. However, even if overall
production were to remain high, declines in certain parts of the Asia-Pacific
region may be expected. Over the long term, adapting and mitigating
impacts from climate change will have to be a top priority for all countries
in the region.
(UNESCAP, 2009: 11)
The gains in food security made during the Green Revolution arose largely from
the global annual rate of growth in crop production exceeding the global annual
rate of population growth: for example, in the 1960s and 1970s, year-on-year
crop production increases of around 3 per cent exceeded population growth
(2 per cent). But over the past decade this situation has changed, with crop
production growth falling to about the same level or below global population
growth: 1.2 per cent (
Figure 6.1
). This is short of the 1.7 per cent needed to
meet expected future growth in food demand (Beddington et al., 2012).
Over a longer period, this supply-demand imbalance will have a significant
impact on the availability and accessibility of crop-based foods particularly
for poorer people. Consequently, a major effort is needed to increase crop
production growth (IAASTD, 2010). However, in spite of the declining trend
in productivity, there has been little if no increase in support of farming systems
research. In the 1970s the total global agricultural research and development
(R&D) as a proportion of total global R&D was approximately 6.8 per cent. In
the last decade this has declined to approximately 1.8 per cent of total global
R&D. Whilst increased investment will not guarantee an arrest in productivity
declines, it is an important step to ensuring that agricultural systems science
continues to improve and be applied to ensure resilient future farming.
Another warning sign for global food security is arising through changes in
the variability of crop production: this relates to the stability dimension of food
security. There has been a steady and substantial reduction over time in the
variability of crop production with the coefficient of variation - in other words,
the measure of fluctuations in crop output - decreasing to less than a third of its
