Geoscience Reference
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A parallel experiment took place simultaneously in Europe. In 1976
Helmut Tributsch, a successful physical chemist, returned to his native vil-
lage in the mountains of northern Italy to help his family rebuild after the
devastating Friuli earthquake. “What left the most profound impression on
me,” he recalled, “was meeting and talking with the people living there,
most of them peasants, whom I had known since childhood.” Some of the
neighbors mentioned that their animals had behaved strangely in the days
before the earthquake. Tributsch took these comments seriously, because
these were individuals “whom I trusted completely.” Yet he recognized that
“any scientist interested in studying this problem would risk not only his
reputation but also any chance of getting support.” The prospect of a fight
strengthened his resolve. It seemed to him that twentieth-century science
was failing to recognize its duty to these people: “After I had talked with
the people of my village it became clear to me that injustice had been com-
mitted here and that science had failed.” Tributsch pursued the hypoth-
esis that animals responded to changes in atmospheric electricity preceding
earthquakes. The observations of these peasants figured prominently in his
research, as did nineteenth-century felt reports. “Against the scientific rules
that demand that basic observations of nature must be as precise and reli-
able as possible, I have adopted these people's faith in what can be seen and
experienced so that I might be better able to defend their case.” Tributsch
lamented that earthquake observing had been abandoned: “With the twen-
tieth century came the seismograph, and with it the age of exact earthquake
research. Stationmasters were no longer asked about their observations, and
the uneducated people also lost their opportunity to pass on their observa-
tions to enlightened scholars.” Appropriately, his account of this research
for a general audience bore the dedication: “To the observers of nature with-
out name, title, or career for their contributions to the progress of science.” 13
Yet Tributsch's research on earthquakes remained marginal, even as he him-
self went on to a successful career in physical chemistry.
Only in one country did ordinary citizens become central to late twentieth-
century research on earthquake prediction, as they had been to nineteenth-
century seismology. Under Mao Tse-tung, the Chinese built a network of
observers to report regularly on well-water variations, telluric currents, and
animal behavior—all phenomena long suspected to be of value for predict-
ing earthquakes. Fa-ti Fan argues that earthquake prediction “provided a
perfect opportunity for mass science,” where “mass science” meant the Mao-
ist principle of the integration of technical and folk knowledge to utilitarian
ends. 14 As Fan shows, this research drew admiring scientific visitors from
around the world. Tributsch, for instance, remarked that “it is the Chinese
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