Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
with Three Mile Island, the media expressed skepticism. When it was up-
graded to the maximum of 7, matched only by Chernobyl, the reaction
turned to exasperation. What meaning could such a comparison have, given
that the radioactive material from Fukushima was estimated at one-tenth
the amount from Chernobyl? Indeed, the INES scale was published with the
unlikely caveat that it was meant to aid international communication, but
not
“international comparisons.”
8
Earthquake Observers in the 1970s
Seismic disaster abruptly recaptured the attention of American geophysicists
in 1964, when Alaska experienced the most powerful shock ever recorded
in North America. In 1965 Frank Press of Caltech began coordinating a
national effort to address seismic hazards, with a notable emphasis on
prediction.
9
While seismic risk assessment is about the future likelihood
of earthquakes of a given severity, short-term prediction is about generat-
ing timely warnings. Earthquake prediction briefly became part of main-
stream geophysics in the United States in the 1960s and 1970s, but the use
of untrained observers remained marginal. It was apparently not until the
mid-1970s that efforts at prediction in California began to recruit local ob-
servers. By then, it was clear that seismic observations could also serve the
cause of California's antinuclear movement. A number of proposed nuclear
reactors in California were canceled when residents argued against them
on the basis of the local earthquake threat.
10
Then, in 1977, the question of
earthquake prediction was taken up by the Center for Applied Intuition, a
San Francisco-based organization founded by a Massachusetts Institute of
Technology-trained electrical engineer, William Kautz. According to Kautz,
the center's purpose was to employ “expert intuitives”—otherwise known as
“psychics, channelers, clairvoyants, and healers”—to derive hypotheses that
could be subjected to experimental testing.
11
Without revealing the source
of his hypotheses, Kautz proposed four experiments to the USGS. Of the
two that won funding, one was a statistical study of animal behavior pre-
ceding earthquakes, Project Earthquake Watch. The experiment consisted of
“an active network of 1500 volunteer observers of pets, farm animals, zoo
animals and others—eventually a total of 200 species—in selected seismic
areas throughout California.” Kautz reported “positive results” for seven
of the thirteen moderate earthquakes registered in the four-year period of
the study.
12
Despite the support of the USGS, however, Project Earthquake
Watch unfolded on the outer fringe of academic science, fueled by the coun-
terculture of the 1970s.
