Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
cific walrus, which still exists in large num-
bers. For the walrus the ice is important
because it serves as a breeding place and
a safe nursery for pups while adults dive
to obtain food from the sea floor. When
ice is absent the walrus may be forced to
crowd along a shoreline: in 2009 as many
as four thousand were found crushed on
a Siberian beach. It was a disaster caused
when the closely packed animals suddenly
panicked and rushed toward the water.
Normally the walrus are widely spread out
on the ice pack, rather than on a narrow
beach.
The ivory gull is an Arctic species that
feeds on just about anything small that
moves. The bird's food ranges from a vari-
ety of plankton to small fish to squid. The
gull takes advantage of the rich assem-
blage of food found on ice margins and in
ice cracks.
All these and many other animals re-
quire extensive sea ice for their survival.
Will they be able to adjust to a new, ice-free
world?
over the same time frame is the projection
of hundreds of scientists. The geologist Lee
Gerhard notes that we can expect a four-
inch rise in this century. Bjørn Lomborg
expects a thirty-centimeter (one-foot) rise.
All four of these projections of sea level
rise are extremely low relative to the ipcc
projections, especially if one includes the
likely contribution from melting ice sheets.
In fact they are lower than the current sea
level rise rate of well over thirty centime-
ters (one foot) per century, and there is not
the slightest indication of a reversal of the
sea level rise in coming decades. The prob-
lem is that the report issued by the ipcc
in 2007 projected a very low sea level rise,
because it disregarded the contribution of
the ice sheets (chapter 3). Although the re-
port noted the omission, stating that the
effect of the ice sheets should be excluded
because it couldn't be modeled, the deniers
seem to have ignored this statement. Pat-
rick Michaels and Robert Balling in their
topic
Climate of Extremes
absurdly charac-
terize the ipcc's recognition of its omission
of ice sheet melting as a small caveat. Small
indeed! Meltwaters from the ice sheets are
expected to be the most important source
of sea level rise in this century. The impli-
cation that many researchers agree with
the low projections is preposterous. At the
farthest end of the spectrum is Nils Axel
Mörner, a geologist at the University of
Stockholm. He published a booklet refut-
ing sea level rise with the title “Sea Level
Rise: The Greatest Lie Ever Told.” Mörner
Myths, Misinterpretations, and
Misunderstandings of the Deniers
myth
: Climatologists expect sea level to
rise only slightly.
The petroleum geologist
H. Leighton Steward says that most clima-
tologists predict a sea level rise of seven or
eight inches by 2100. The coastal engineer
Robert Dean states that thirteen inches
