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contemplate the implications for the billions of people who will be
stuck in poverty and disease for the indefi nite future.
The central fi nding here is that the climate-change problem is
largely a by-product of rapid economic growth without emissions re-
ductions. But the scenario of continued productivity growth also im-
plies that people will on average be richer in the future—which in turn
implies that nations will be better able to afford steps to slow climate
change or adapt to its adverse effects.
So we have a paradox. Rapid economic growth without abatement
policies will produce rapid climate change and substantial damages.
Slow growth will leave us poor but with fewer damages. However, even
with substantial climate-change damages, consumption will still be
much larger in the growth world than in the no-growth world. People
will have substantially higher living standards in the growth world even
after subtracting the damages from the changing climate.
The likelihood that people will be richer in the future is no excuse
for ignoring climate change today. But it is also a reminder that we will
leave our grandchildren a more productive economy alongside a de-
graded climate. If you compare the projected living standards in 2100
or 2200 in the two economic scenarios shown in Figure 13, you can see
that it would take an enormous amount of climate damage to offset the
fruits of future productivity growth on our living standards.
Should we conclude from this example that our problem is too
much economic growth? That we should aim for zero economic growth?
Few people today draw this conclusion. 4 It would be like throwing out
all the groceries because the milk is sour. The appropriate response is to
fi x the market failure by repairing the fl awed economic externality in-
volved in climate change. Throw out the sour milk and fi x the faulty
refrigerator. Understanding how to do this will be our task in Parts III
and IV.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
Almost daily we read about global famine, decadal droughts, and
major areas at risk. For example, The New York Times published a long
article, “A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself.” After recounting
 
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