Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
and individuals with strong economic interests in reducing environ-
mental costs and constraints.
The partisan divide became clear with the Obama administration's
proposal for a cap-and-trade bill. It passed the House in 2009 with only
eight Republican votes. If we look at the statements of major Republican
political fi gures in 2010 and 2012, in virtually all cases they rejected
climate-change science or economics. Hence, by 2011-2012, the two
parties were clearly divided on global warming policies. Arguments
against policies were usefully reinforced by arguments against the un-
derlying science by a few contrarian scientists waiting in the wings (as
we saw in Chapter 24).
The increasing political divide on environmental issues is shown in
Figure 43, tracking the positions of the two parties using the environ-
mental scorecard published by the League of Conservation Voters.
They
rank members of Congress between 0 and 100 based on votes on key
environmental legislation. The sharpest increase in polarization came
between 1988, when global warming emerged as a political issue, and
1997, when the Clinton administration negotiated the Kyoto Protocol.
The difference in the “environmental score” between House Demo-
crats and Republicans rose from 20 percentage points in the early 1970s
to between 60 and 70 percentage points in the late 2000s.
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The messages from the political elites, therefore, became increas-
ingly differentiated. Members of the public who were solidly conserva-
tive took the message that global warming was bad science and politics,
while liberals took the opposite message from their leaders. You can see
the effect in Figure 42, where public opinion moved sharply toward the
skeptical viewpoint. This is a remarkable swing in public opinion in
such a short time.
The standard theory of public opinion is clearly demonstrated here.
The conservative elites moved toward opposition to global warming
policies, and they welcomed contrarian scientists who helped under-
mine the scientifi c consensus. Conservatives among the public followed
elite opinion with a lag. Those most intensely involved in politics, such
as the tea party Republicans, swung further than less involved conser-
vatives. The most educated conservatives shifted most sharply to the
