Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Standing back from the shouting and debates, I would draw two
lessons here. The fi rst is a warning about the potential for a false scien-
tifi c consensus. Many scientists are irritated by the nagging contrarians
who are always pointing to some obscure piece of data or trend that
points in a direction that seems to contradict the standard theory behind
climate change. Perhaps contrarians point to the pause in warming such
as occurred during the 2000-2010 period; or satellite observations that
differ from ground-based observations; or studies that indicate that ag-
riculture might benefi t from CO
2
fertilization.
It is tempting to wish the critics would simply disappear. However,
the history of science tells us that we need to be alert to the possibility
of allowing a false consensus, of ignoring telltale inconsistencies, of
holding too fi rmly to existing doctrines. So the correct response to crit-
ics is to look carefully at their arguments and determine whether they
do indeed undermine standard theories. Scientists and economists need
to confront contrary arguments with the same vigor with which they
argue for the validity of their own approaches.
The second lesson in Feynman's story is a reminder about how good
science proceeds—both in the natural sciences of space travel and in
the social sciences like economics. There is a remote possibility that the
world will not warm over the coming years. We can never say for sure
that global warming theories are 100 percent correct.
Rather, it is better to say, “Given the fundamental science, the many
climate models from around the world, the fi ercely competitive scien-
tifi c enterprise that tests assumptions and reasoning, and the accumu-
lation of corroborating evidence, it is very likely that the theories are
correct. Perhaps we are only 95 percent certain. But we cannot wait to
be 100 percent certain because absolute certainty can never be achieved
in an empirical science. And if we wait until we are completely certain,
it will be too late to stop it.”
