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some observers project that solar electricity will be competitive with
fossil fuels within two or three decades. In recent years, as costs have
dropped and climate-change policy has become more prominent,
there has been steep growth in patenting of photovoltaic solar cells.
Figure 39 shows the trend in the price of photovoltaic modules. 9
If you look at the history of inventions, you will fi nd that virtually
every one entailed a similar interplay between basic science, applica-
tions, commercial interests, false starts, improvements, and profi ts in
the marketplace when they succeeded. A study of technological history
also shows the perils of forecasting technological advances—as diffi cult
as predicting the stock market. As an example, in the 1958 fi rst edition
of the study by John Jewkes, David Sawers, and Richard Stillerman,
that is wise in other respects, the authors did not include computers
among their great inventions. Revisiting this a decade later, they wrote,
“the Electronic Digital Computer seemed to have so uncertain a com-
mercial future that we decided to exclude it from our case studies.” 10
This prediction by three of the most prominent historians of technology
is a sober reminder of the diffi culties of forecasting future trends.
100.0
50.0
35.0
25.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
3.5
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
1975
1980
1955
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Figure 39. Decline in price of solar power. Prices declined sharply in the early era,
reached a plateau, and then dropped again when China entered the market with
large governmental subsidies.
 
 
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