Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
This survey just touches on possible technological solutions to the
climate problem. I conclude tentatively that for the foreseeable future
there are no mature technologies that can meet ambitious emissions
reduction targets economically. But we cannot reliably see far into the
future, and technologies are developing rapidly in many areas. So we
need to be attuned to new possibilities. Even more important, we need
to encourage fundamental and applied science, and to ensure that mar-
kets provide the appropriate incentives for inventors and investors to
discover and introduce new low-carbon technologies. That issue leads
to the fi nal section of this chapter, which explores innovation policies.
THE NATURE OF INNOVATION
Most energy decisions are made by private businesses and consum-
ers on the basis of prices, profi ts, incomes, and habits. Governments
infl uence energy use through regulations, subsidies, and taxes. But the
central decisions are taken in the context of market supply and demand.
It is clear that a rapid decarbonization will require substantial changes
in our energy technologies. How do technological changes arise? The
answer is, usually through a complex interaction of individual bril-
liance, persistence, economic incentives, and market demand. The me-
andering history of the photoelectric cell used for solar power is a typical
example.
The story begins in 1839, when the young French physicist Edmond
Becquerel hit upon the photovoltaic effect while experimenting with
an electrolytic cell. The physics underlying the photoelectric effect were
explained by Albert Einstein in 1905, for which he won the Nobel Prize.
The fi rst important practical applications for the photovoltaic cell
were not created until more than a century after Becquerel's discovery.
Scientists at Bell Telephone Labs developed solar cells in the mid-1950s,
and governments got involved as they realized the potential of solar
power for use in space satellites and remote locations. At that point, solar
technology blossomed, with applications in space satellites, small arrays
on houses, and large solar plants. Effi ciency rose from 4 percent in the
fi rst solar cells to more than 40 percent in the best current applications.
Costs have fallen dramatically since the fi rst cells were produced, and
 
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