Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
other fi xed costs are already spent). Variable costs are low, generally less
than 5 cents per kWh. As long as these plants are operational, and with-
out any CO
2
emissions charges, they will continue to be profi table for
many years. For new plants, natural gas is currently the most economical
of mature technologies. Conventional coal and wind power are about
50 percent more expensive than new natural gas plants.
The central question going forward is the prospect for economical
low-carbon electricity. Wind is the only mature low-carbon technology.
It is 50 percent more expensive than the best existing technology. More-
over, its capacity is limited in the United States. The other promising
technologies with the possibility of large-scale deployments are, from
least to most expensive, advanced natural gas with carbon capture and
storage (CCS), advanced nuclear power, and advanced coal with CCS.
These are 50 to 100 percent more expensive than the most economical
existing technology. Moreover, they are still a long way from being ready
for large-scale deployment. Table 14 is worth careful study as it shows
the gaps that must be reduced—either by technological improvements
or by carbon pricing—to bring low-carbon technologies to the market.
It is sobering to recognize the hurdles on the road to a low-carbon
economy. Chapter 14 analyzed the diffi culties involved in deploying
CCS on a large scale. The other major large-scale and proven nonfossil
energy resource today is nuclear power. Nuclear power can be used for
electricity, but there is currently no economical way to use it in many
applications, such as air travel. In addition, nuclear power faces two
hurdles. To begin with, it is more expensive than fossil fuels (see Table 14).
An even greater obstacle is the huge number of plants that would be
required to replace fossil fuel power generation. Moreover, because of
widespread public concerns about safety, the expansion would have to
occur in an environment where some countries (Germany, for exam-
ple) plan to phase out nuclear power.
Given the constraints on using nuclear power, the transition to a
low-carbon future will require new and unproven—or existing and
expensive—technologies. The most attractive options in most people's
minds are renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and geother-
