Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
THE LAST REFUGE
As the Kyoto Protocol expired at the end of 2012, many observers
turned pessimistic. The leading British scientifi c magazine,
Nature,
had
a special issue with a cover headline, “The Heat Is On: A Survival Guide
to the Post-Kyoto World.” Its introduction opined, “the world can go
up on emissions restraints and believe that energy effi ciency and new
technologies are the answer. The Obama administration is pushing
ahead on regulatory approaches. Others believe we have no alternative
but to adapt to rapid warming, droughts, and rising seas.
We should avoid these mood swings from excessive optimism about
the signing of the Kyoto Protocol to grim pessimism about its demise.
Most of this topic is devoted to thinking through different successor re-
gimes. But suppose that the pessimists are correct about emissions reduc-
tion plans; perhaps an effective international regime to raise carbon
prices is beyond reach. The alternative siren song of regulatory con-
straints is ineffi cient and unlikely to achieve the appropriate limits on
climate change. What hope is there for our world?
In reality, when active policies fail, the only remaining hope for a
happy ending would be a revolutionary change in energy technologies—
changes that made low-carbon or even negative-carbon activities so
inexpensive that they would replace fossil fuels even without any
nudge from policymakers. This would require very steep declines in
the costs of current renewable fuels (wind, solar, and geothermal) or
discoveries of new technologies that are currently not in widespread
application.
At present, the odds for such a favorable technological outcome are
low in the Climate Casino. But technological history is full of surprises.
Particularly if we are pessimistic about other roads to a stabilized cli-
mate, we should use all means to make the positive—in the sense of
low-carbon—technological surprises more likely. This chapter discusses
the challenges and the options.
