Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 11.
Distribution of emissions by country income level.
Lower limit of
per capita income
(2005 U.S. $)
Cumulative share
of global CO
2
emissions (%)
Number
of countries
Country group
High income
20,000
46.3
35
Middle income
10,000
60.8
30
Low-middle income
5,000
89.9
30
Low income
2,000
99.1
35
Lowest income
280
100.0
37
slightly less than half of all CO
2
emissions. The top three groups, repre-
senting 90 percent of current emissions, include not only rich coun-
tries but also China, South Africa, Ukraine, Thailand, Kazakhstan,
Egypt, Algeria, Colombia, Turkmenistan, Peru, and Azerbaijan.
High-income countries had commitments under the Kyoto Protocol
(although not all of them met these commitments, and the United
States and Canada withdrew). They will serve as the critical mass for an
effective agreement.
However, as I have emphasized repeatedly, this problem cannot be
solved if rich countries act alone. Meeting an ambitious temperature
target will require that countries representing virtually all emissions
participate. As Table 11 shows, an effective agreement will require in-
cluding most middle-income and low-middle-income countries, partic-
ularly China and India. For these countries, joining in the carbon price
regime would seem a reasonable goal for an international climate-
change treaty. On the other hand, the prospects of India or China join-
ing a Kyoto-like agreement in the near future seem remote. The range
of institutional structures and integration in the global economy and in
international institutions differs greatly among these countries, but
they need to be persuaded to join a global agreement if it is to be effec-
tive, and the agreement needs to be designed in a way that is not overly
burdensome for middle-income countries. A minimum carbon price
regime does that.
