Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
70
Kyoto participants
European Union
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Figure 36.
Share of global emissions. The Kyoto Protocol (the dashed line) covered
almost two- thirds of emissions when it began. However, the growth of developing
countries and the departure of the United States and Canada reduced that share to
about one-fi fth by the time it expired in 2012. The EU was the major stalwart through-
out this period (its share of global emissions is shown as the solid line).
regulatory measures that limit emissions on specifi c technologies. These
policies may bend down the trajectory of emissions slightly in the com-
ing years. But they are unlikely to do so effi ciently, and, given the high
costs of ineffi cient measures (discussed in Chapter 22), countries acting
unilaterally are unlikely to take suffi ciently energetic measures to en-
sure that climate change stays short of the dangerous thresholds.
It is painful to conclude that an important and well-meaning
approach—in which so many invested so much time and hope—has
failed. But it is hard to reach any other conclusion about the Kyoto
model. At present, global actions lag far behind the steps that would be
necessary to limit global warming to the 3°C increase indicated by eco-
nomic cost-benefi t analysis, while the ambitious 2°C target announced
at Copenhagen is probably infeasible.
