Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
models suggest that attaining this goal would take between 1 and 2 per-
cent of total world income on an annual basis.
But we need to be realistic about country behavior and the effi -
ciency of our policies. To the extent that countries do not participate, or
that ineffi cient measures are used, or that the timing of actions is in-
effi cient, then we cannot realistically attain an ambitious temperature
target such as that adopted at Copenhagen. Under such circumstances,
we might be able to achieve a less ambitious goal, perhaps limiting global
warming to an increase of 3°C.
So unless virtually all countries participate very soon, and do so in
an effi cient manner, achieving the Copenhagen target of limiting the
increase in global temperature to 2°C is not possible with current or
readily available technologies. This does not mean that we should give
up. We need to strive to develop more effi cient technologies; we need to
design social mechanisms that will encourage economic effi ciency and
high participation; we should provide help to poor countries that have
limited resources; and we will need to recalibrate our objectives toward
achievable goals rather than fail in the ambitious but impossible ones.
