Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Many scientifi c studies of global warming present future technologi-
cal scenarios in great detail. I do not take that approach here. One reason
is that we really don't know the answer. Economists and policymakers
do not have the information to micromanage the energy system for 315
million Americans or 7 billion earthlings. The economy is too compli-
cated and evolves too rapidly. Rather, as discussed in Part IV, economists
emphasize that policy should be designed to provide strong incentives to
reduce CO 2 emissions and to develop new low-carbon technologies.
Even though we may not know the technological details of a global
warming strategy, we do have some educated hunches on where the
major areas for reduction should come. I illustrate this with an analysis
of a specifi c policy proposal. For this example, I examine a proposal
that targeted a 40 percent reduction in U.S. GHGs in 2030 relative to a
no-control baseline. The details of the proposal are not important for
my purpose; rather, the emphasis is on the effi cient manner of reaching
an ambitious target.
The policy was analyzed using a very detailed energy model devel-
oped by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Figure 24 shows
that most of the emissions reductions would come from reducing coal
use. 4 Coal consumption would be reduced 90 percent, while petroleum
and natural gas use would be reduced about 5 percent each. The reason
for this result is that coal has much higher CO 2 emissions per dollar of
energy content. Additionally, natural gas can be economically substi-
tuted for coal in electricity generation, as we saw in example 2 earlier in
this chapter. Finally, the price of natural gas has fallen sharply in recent
years, reducing the cost penalty of reducing coal use even further.
The results of detailed energy models suggest an important and
troubling conclusion. The favorite policies of most countries today are
energy effi ciency regulations such as those for automobiles and appli-
ances like refrigerators. However, such regulations will not touch the
area where reductions are most economical—electricity generation from
coal. While energy-effi ciency regulation may be popular, reducing coal
use meets with ferocious opposition from coal regions and their hired
guns. But careful analyses show that coal is king when it comes to re-
ducing CO 2 emissions.
 
Search WWH ::




Custom Search