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space when it is full. Should we relax all our efforts to slow climate
change? A little refl ection suggests not. The bug might in reality eat
nothing and fl y nowhere, and we will then be faced with unchecked
climate change. We need policies for when the bug does not eat, not
for when it does eat. So to the extent that global warming policies are
largely insurance against uncertain but very damaging outcomes in
the Climate Casino, the possibility of favorable outcomes from potential
revolutionary breakthroughs does not substantially reduce the insur-
ance premium to cover the adverse impacts of global warming.
So what is the conclusion on mitigation? There are many options
for reducing CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Some are available today,
such as shifting electricity generation from coal to natural gas and other
low-carbon sources. Others are more speculative, such as carbon cap-
ture and sequestration. Still others are dreams, such as carbon-eating
trees and bugs. Economists who have studied this problem are gener-
ally in agreement: We can slow global warming through mitigation if
the task is taken seriously and managed effi ciently. It need not be ruin-
ously expensive, and the use of market-friendly tools will reduce the
expense and the intrusiveness of policies on our everyday lives. The
impact on living standards over the next half century would be very
modest if mitigation is effi ciently managed. All these are big assump-
tions, to which I turn in the next few chapters.
 
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