Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTINCTIONS
We know that past rapid climate changes have sometimes been ac-
companied by mass extinctions. Will that happen again in the coming
decades and beyond? The estimates here are particularly diffi cult to pin
down. To begin with, estimates of the current rate of extinction vary
greatly. The observed number of extinctions is relatively small, while
theoretical calculations give much larger numbers.
3
Scientists who have studied potential extinctions project dire conse-
quences in the case of rapid warming. A review suggests that the threat
60
Historical extinction rate
Projected extinction rate
50
40
30
20
10
0
Figure 21.
Historical and projected extinction rates of different groups. The fi gure
shows a recent compilation of estimates of historical and projected extinction rates
for major groups. Historical estimates are for species that became extinct in the wild.
The projections are for threatened groups.
