Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
below 10 meters of altitude and is in the hurricane zones of the Atlantic
coast. Assuming that the major vulnerable items are structures, this
amounts to about $600 billion of capital today. The average lifetime of
structures is around 50 years. Assume for simplicity that all vulnerable
capital assets (such as houses, roads, and hospitals) are moved to safer
locations as they depreciate. The only costs would be relocation. If these
relocation costs were one-fi fth of the replacement capital costs, secur-
ing the nation's capital from hurricanes would cost about 0.01 percent
of GDP annually over the next half century. This is much smaller than
the costs if no such adaptations are made.
4
This example illustrates how strategic planning for the impacts of
climate change can signifi cantly reduce the damages. But this point
must be qualifi ed by the reality that the distribution of winners and los-
ers makes orderly planning diffi cult. Inlanders may feel little sympathy
for rich people in fancy beach mansions whose vulnerable coastal prop-
erties are threatened; highlanders may not wish to contribute their tax
dollars to build dikes and levees for those threatened by fl ooding; thriv-
ing towns will be disinclined to transfer precious resources to towns
whose tax bases are declining. Moving all the facilities in a coastal town
to a more secure location may reduce vulnerability, but that will provide
little solace to those who are attached to their homes and communities.
The need for far-sighted strategies to deal with coastal settlements,
for both hurricanes and sea-level rise, is one of the major challenges in
dealing with climate change. Orderly planning can reduce the most
dangerous impacts signifi cantly, but the process of adaptation is likely
to be politically contentious and messy.
