Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
9
PERILS FOR THE OCEANS
The last two chapters, on agriculture and health, involved intensively
managed systems. While the impacts in those areas may be unfavorable,
particularly if they are badly managed, the risks are within the range of
economic shocks experienced in normal times. A complete analysis,
which is beyond the scope of this topic, would add other managed or
manageable sectors to that list, such as national security, forests, fi sher-
ies, construction, and energy production. However, the real concerns
about global warming lie elsewhere—outside economic sectors that are
increasingly managed and insulated from adverse environmental con-
ditions.
I turn to four of these most serious and unmanageable threats in
the next chapters: sea-level rise (SLR), ocean acidifi cation, hurricane
intensifi cation, and ecosystem losses. Along with the tipping points dis-
cussed earlier, these issues are properly the areas of greatest concern
over the coming decades. They are areas where the forces at work are
most unmanageable, where the impacts may prove particularly damag-
ing, and where the obstacles to adaptations may be most formidable.
THE RISING SEAS
I begin our analysis of unmanageable impacts of climate change by
looking at the impacts on the oceans, starting with SLR. One of the chal-
lenges for policy is that SLR is so delayed. While the impacts on farming
and health may arrive relatively quickly, the sea level will rise slowly
for many centuries because of the thermal inertia in oceans and the
 
 
 
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