Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
ing about 0.01 percent of total lost DALYs. The reasons for the low im-
pacts are primarily high incomes and good public health structures,
and partially the temperate climates.
If we look at the world as a whole, we fi nd increased health risks
arise primarily for Africa and Southeast Asia. For the developed regions
of North America and western Europe, the increased health risks are
minimal. Other regions, such as Latin America, are in between.
Diarrheal diseases constitute about half the estimated global health
risks from climate change, with malaria and malnutrition each respon-
sible for about a quarter. Note that Table 3 excludes a number of other
health risks, such as fl ooding, other tropical diseases, and heat stress,
but the total for the other ailments as estimated by the WHO team was
much smaller. A table with results for all regions and the world is in the
endnotes.
8
HEALTH RISKS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Having struggled in this fi eld for many years, I have come to view
impacts analysis as a kind of house-to-house combat. It pits dedicated
analysts against fragmentary data and murky future trends. Nowhere is
the terrain more treacherous than in mapping out future health im-
pacts. Health is central to people's well-being and to economic perfor-
mance. Health care is a large and growing part of the global economy,
and it is changing rapidly as new knowledge, drugs, equipment, and
information technology transform the sector.
The health status of poor countries has improved rapidly in recent
years. Consider, for example, the sixty countries with per capita income
less than $2,000 in 1980. In these countries, life expectancy rose by 14
years in the last three decades. Moreover, improvements in health sta-
tus are clearly associated with higher incomes. Economic studies indi-
cate that a rise of 10 percent in per capita income is associated with an
increase in life expectancy of 0.3 years.
If one evaluates the major threats to health in poor countries, they
have been primarily due not to climate change but to AIDS. In coun-
tries such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, and South Africa, health
improvements in other areas have been swamped by the effects of the
