Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
8
THE IMPACT ON HUMAN HEALTH
Among the frightening impacts of global warming is the potential for
major impacts on health. The concerns include malnutrition, heat stress,
Review
put forth the following somber warning: “Just a 1°C increase in
global temperature above pre-industrial [levels] could double annual
deaths from climate change to at least 300,000. . . . At higher tempera-
tures, death rates will increase sharply, for example millions more people
dying from malnutrition each year.”
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This all sounds extremely grave. However, as with agriculture, we
need to look carefully at the assumptions underlying these projections
and to examine mitigating factors and adaptation. What are the assump-
tions about economic growth implicit in the estimates? How large are
the health impacts compared to the background of improvements in
health status around the world? Most important, how will the impacts
be alleviated by the effects of economic growth and improving medical
technologies?
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WARMING ON HUMAN HEALTH
Estimating the impacts of climate change on health is yet another
diffi cult task. It requires estimates of climate change by region and year.
Then it requires estimates of the impacts of changing climate condi-
tions on health for different diseases. This is challenging because the
changes take place well into the future in a world where incomes,
