Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
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“
It is not possible to precisely predict the time to restore even minimal electrical service due to an
EMP eventuality given the number of unknowns and the vast size and complexity of the system with
its consequent fragility and resiliency. Expert judgment and rational extrapolation of models and pre-
dictive tools suggest that restoration to even a diminished but workable state of electrical service
could well take many weeks, with some probability of it taking months and perhaps more than a year
at some or many locations; at that point, society as we know it couldn't exist within large regions of
the Nation. The larger the affected area and the stronger the field strength from the attack (corollary
to extent of damage or disruption), the longer will be the time to recover. Restoration to current stand-
ards of electric power cost and reliability would almost certainly take years with severe impact on the
economy and all that it entails.
. . . There is a point in time at which the shortage or exhaustion of critical items like emergency
power supply, batteries, standby fuel supplies, replacement parts, and manpower resources which
can be coordinated and dispatched, together with the degradation of all other infrastructures and
their systemic impact, all lead toward a collapse of restoration capability. Society will transition into
a situation where restoration needs increase with time as resources degrade and disappear. This is
the most serious of all consequences and thus the ability to restore is paramount.
”
—John S. Foster,
Jr., et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic
Pulse (EMP) Attack,” April 2008
Electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) and solar super storms are two different, but related, categories
of events that are often described as high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) events. Events cat-
egorized as HILF don't happen very often, but if and when they do, they have the potential to
severely affect the lives of many millions of people. At the lower end of the impact range, an
HILF event might cause serious disruption and infrastructure damage to regions covering sev-
eral hundred square miles, similar in scope to the destruction and disruption caused by Hur-
ricane Katrina, the Haitian earthquake, or the Indian Ocean tsunami. At the higher end of the
range of potential impact, the social and economic fabric of entire countries might collapse, and
