Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
graph lines, towers, and stations caught on fire at numerous locations around the world. Best
estimates are that the Carrington Event was roughly 50 percent stronger than the 1921 incident.
If it were to happen today, the Carrington Event would almost certainly devastate the giant
interconnected machine that keeps our global economy working smoothly. It would take many
months, and possibly years, for things to get back to normal.
Though probably significantly smaller in area than that of a huge solar storm, the localized
damage from a terrorist EMP attack could be much greater. According to the Commission Re-
port, a nuclear blast detonated 60 miles above the earth's surface could expose roughly 1.5 mil-
lion square miles to crippling EMP-field intensities. This is an area equal to about half the con-
tinental United States! Let's say a terrorist, or a rogue state like North Korea, did manage to
detonate a nuclear device high above the eastern seaboard of the United States. Even if the
EMP impact was far smaller than the scenario described by the Commission Report, it may
well be powerful enough to paralyze the densely populated region extending from Boston
through New York City all the way past Washington, D.C. Without killing a single person dir-
ectly, a single suborbital nuclear detonation would wreak great havoc, potentially devastating
the economy of the entire country.
Chances are slim that events like this will cause a total collapse of civilization, but they
may well lead to the end of the world as we know it through extreme short-term failures of all
utilities and central services for hundreds of millions of people. This would decimate financial
systems and far exceed the federal government's capacity to cope with the situation, making
post-Katrina New Orleans and the recent financial meltdown look like picnics, in comparison.
Scenario 3: Category 4 or 5 Hurricane Hits New York City
“
I'll be surprised if over the next five years a major hurricane doesn't hit the northeastern United
States,” said Joe Bastardi, an expert senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, a commercial forecaster
based in State College, Pa. . . . 'After New Orleans, the worst area with respect to storm surge is Long
Island and New York and the Northeast,' said Karen Clark, president and CEO of AIR Worldwide, an
insurance industry consulting firm.
”
—“Ready or Not, Northeast Ripe for Big Hurricane,” Associated
Press, May 22, 2006.
Most people associate hurricanes with more southern climates than New York City or New
England, but records show that New York City, Long Island, and the New England coast have
all been pounded by major hurricanes, but just not so often that people tend to remember the
last one. Every eighty years or so, the Big Apple gets hit by a major hurricane. The last big one,
