The sustainability transition - Environmental and Human Security in the Arctic - page 93

changing course today regarding a socioeconomic system of this scope would
be enormous. Needless to say, it is generally difficult to foresee the longer-
term impacts of current choices. But the power of path dependence should
provide us with ample reason to pay attention to the future, whatever the
attractions of discounting or the pressures to adopt short-term perspectives
arising from the imperatives of electoral politics.
Create sensitive monitoring systems
The combination of uncertainty about the behaviour of turbulent systems and
the power of path dependence makes it essential to monitor the results of poli-
cies closely. If we could forecast future developments confidently or if there
was no reason to care about long-term consequences, we could dispense with
monitoring. But neither of these conditions holds. We must expect surprises
in the form of unforeseen occurrences that can have far-reaching impacts
on human welfare as well as on the welfare of other species and ecosystems.
And given the normal volatility of socio-ecological systems, early warning is
highly desirable. Although early warning offers no guarantee that we will be
able to intervene effectively to prevent disruptive occurrences, warning of this
sort is clearly a necessary condition for successful adaptation.
In dealing with socio-ecological systems, there is a need to monitor both
biophysical processes and human actions. Consider the case of climate change
in this light. We need to track not only rates of change in the concentrations
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere but
also rates of change in emissions of such gases resulting from human actions.
Increases in anthropogenic emissions are a critical force changing atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases, and the resulting impacts on the Earth's
climate system constitute the fundamental concern regarding human interfer-
ences in the climate system. To determine the scope of the problem we need
to monitor the relevant biophysical processes. But to develop appropriate
responses, we need to track the human actions involved so that any measures
we devise to address the problem can be designed in such a way as to target
the most important and most malleable of these actions.
Encourage social learning
Adaptive management, an idea that is currently popular, is undoubtedly a use-
ful addition to our analytic toolkit (Lee 1993). It recognizes the dynamism of
coupled systems and stresses the importance of creating governance systems
that are designed to be sensitive to and adjustable in the light of changing
circumstances. The regime created to protect the stratospheric ozone layer is a
case in point. It allows the parties to agree on accelerated phase-out schedules
for ozone-depleting chemicals already subject to regulation (e.g. most chloro-
fluorocarbons or CFCs) without requiring a laborious process of ratification on