An Analysis of Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Bay of Bengal during 1981-2010 - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 81

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Fig. 1: The maximum intensification for each TS group (plotted against mid point of
each TS group) and function fit. Dotted line indicates maximum intensity change
(positive) line and solid line indicates best-fit line for time interval (a) 12 h, (b) 24 h,
(c) 36 h, (d) 48 h, (e) 60 h and (f) 72 h.

the mid points of each TS group. The figures show a trend of increasing upper-
bound of intensity change (positive) with increasing translational speed,
thereafter there is a trend towards decreasing rate of intensification as the speed
of movement increases. In between there is a narrow range of translational
speeds, where maximum intensification occurs.
In a more explicit approach, as shown in Table 1, the peak intensification
55 kt occur in (3.1-3.5) TS group, 75 kt in (4.1-4.5) TS group, 90 kt in (4.1-
4.5) TS group, 100 kt in (4.6-5.0) TS group, 100 kt in (4.1-5.0) TS group, and
115 kt occur in (4.1-4.5) TS group at 12 h, 24 h, 36 h, 48 h, 60 h and 72 h
intervals respectively. This implies that peak rate of intensification generally

Table 1: Peak intensity change in each time intervals and
corresponding TS groups

Hr Maximum intensity TS group

change (Kt) (m/s)

12 55 3.1-3.5

24 75 4.1-4.5

36 90 4.1-4.5

48 100 4.6-5.0

60 100 4.1-5.0

72 115 4.1-4.5