Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean Projected by the New High- Resolution MRI-AGCM - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 67

synoptic scale disturbances ( D ) (Lau and Lau 1990), vertical zonal-wind shear
( V zs ), and SST anomaly ( S a ).
Figure 4 shows ensemble mean spatial distributions for the large-scale
parameters. The pattern correlation between the plotted quantity and projected
TC genesis frequency are shown in the top right corner of each panel in Fig. 4.
The thermodynamic parameters of S a , RH , and MPI are more highly correlated
with projected changes in TC genesis frequency than the dynamic parameters.
Fig. 4: Future changes in large-scale parameters: (a) SST anomaly [K], (b) relative
humidity at 700 hPa [%], (c) maximum potential intensity [m s -1 ], (d) saturation deficit
at 700 hPa [10 2 Pa], (e) static stability [K] for thermodynamic parameters, (f) relative
vorticity at 850 hPa [10 -6 s -1 ] (positive values indicate cyclonic), (g) vertical wind
shear [m s -1 ], (h) vertical zonal wind shear [m s -1 ], (i) vertical pressure-velocity at 500
hPa [10 -2 Pa s -1 ], and (j) synoptic-scale disturbances [10 -10 s -2 ] for dynamical parameter.
The number in the top right corner of each panel shows the spatial correlation coefficient
between the plotted quantity and the projected changes in TC genesis frequency.
Cross marks indicate ensemble-mean differences that are consistent among more than 12
experiments (approximately 80% of all ensemble experiments).