Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean Projected by the New High- Resolution MRI-AGCM - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 65

Fig. 1: Annual means of prescribed future changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
[°C]. (a) Ensemble mean of 18 CMIP3 models. (b)-(d) Changes in SSTs classified
using a cluster analysis. The numbers at the top right of each panel show the global
mean SST change (GM), tropical (30°S-30°N) mean SST change (TM), and standard
deviation of the tropical SST spatial change (TS), respectively.
Fig. 2: Fractional future changes [%] in TC genesis number for (a) North Indian Ocean,
(b) Bay of Bengal and (c) Arabian Sea according to each ensemble experiment. The
error bars indicate 90% confidence intervals. Dashed bars indicate projected future
changes that are statistically significant at the 90% level. ALL is the ensemble mean
for the fifteen experiments. YS, KF and AS indicate the ensemble mean using the
Yoshimura, Kain-Fritsch and Arakawa-Schubert cumulus convection scheme,
respectively. C0, C1, C2 and C3 indicate the ensemble mean using the CMIP3 multiple
mean SST, cluster 1, cluster 2 and cluster 3 SST, respectively.
3.2 Projected Future Changes in TC Frequency
TC positions are counted for each 5° × 5° grid box within the NIO domain at
six-hourly intervals. The TC frequency (TCF) is defined as the total count for