Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean Projected by the New High- Resolution MRI-AGCM - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 63

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone
Activity in the North Indian Ocean
Projected by the New High-
Resolution MRI-AGCM
Hiroyuki Murakami*, Masato Sugi and Akio Kitoh 1
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and
Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan
1 Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
*e-mail: [e-mail]
1. Introduction
Projections of the potential impacts of global warming on regional TC activity
are important for estimations of potential future socio-economic losses.
However, projected changes in the TC genesis number have varied considerably,
especially at the ocean-basin scale (Knutson et al., 2010). This inconsistency
among projections arises from a number of factors, including differences in
assumed spatial patterns of future changes in sea surface temperature (SST),
differences in model physical parameterizations, differences in the chosen global
warming scenario, and differences in the methods used to detect TCs. In this
study, we conduct ensemble projections that consider differences in both tropical
spatial patterns of SST changes and model physics, particularly the cumulus
parameterization scheme to investigate future changes in TC activity over the
North Indian Ocean (NIO).
2. Models and Experimental Design
The model used in this study is the Meteorological Research Institute
Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) version 3.1 (Mizuta
et al., 2006) and 3.2 (Mizuta et al., 2012). The model simulations are run at a
horizontal resolution of TL959 and TL319 (equivalent to 20-km- and 60-km-
mesh). In this study, three cumulus convection schemes are used to develop
the multi-physics ensemble simulations: a prognostic Arakawa-Schubert (AS)