Recent Research at GFDL on Surface Temperature Trends and Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Indian Ocean Region - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 54

Fig. 3: Analysis of surface temperature trends (1901-2010) for annual mean data
from: (a) HadCRUT4 observations; (b) CMIP5 seven-model ensemble mean (All
Forcing experiments). Unit: degrees C per 100 yr. In (c) the observed trend is assessed
in terms of the multi-model ensemble mean trends and variability in the historical
forcing and control runs (CMIP5). Specifically, observed trends are compared with
simulated trends from the seven CMIP5 models that have both All Forcing and with
Natural Forcing Only runs extending to 2010. The different colours in (c) depict
different categories of assessment result; the categories are listed in the legend beside
the panel and discussed in the text.
Summary
In short, we find that the Indian Ocean region is the one characterized by a
detectable anthropogenic surface warming signal according to the model-based
assessment presented here. Owing to this characteristic, the Indian Ocean is
therefore a region where we might anticipate relatively earlier detection of
SST-related climate change impacts, including changes in tropical cyclone
activity, compared with other ocean basins.