Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
5. Future Work - Prospects for Improving Seasonal
Prediction of Tropical Cyclones
Reliable prediction of TC seasonal activity is important for preparedness of
coastal communities in the tropics. In investigating prospects for improving
the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans
we used linear regression to model the relationship between the annual number
of cyclones and three indices (SOI, NIÑO3.4 and 5VAR) describing the strength
of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Kuleshov et al., 2012). It was
found that for the Australian region, the new statistical model provides some
prospects for improvement in forecasting skill. It was also found that the
correlations for the eastern South Pacific Ocean and the western South Indian
Ocean were not as strong as in the Australian region. With these weak
correlations, it was concluded that it is not sensible to further build linear
regression models for those regions.
In our future work towards improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction
in the various regions of the Southern Hemisphere we will undertake an analysis
of outputs from a dynamical climate model. The Australian Bureau of
Meteorology has developed a dynamical climate prediction model POAMA
(Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) (Wang et al., 2008). It
has been demonstrated that POAMA has substantial skill in predicting sea
surface temperatures and rainfall across the Asia-Pacific region (Hendon et
al., 2009). The skill results indicate the potential for developing TC seasonal
prediction using statistical-dynamical model-based approach. Another avenue
which our team will also explore is dynamical model-based approach. This
will be a focus of our investigations for the “Seasonal prediction of tropical
cyclones” project which our team will conduct under the Pacific-Australia
Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning programme (PACCSAP) in
2012-13.
6. Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean
are frequent and intense, and they dramatically affect maritime navigation and
the lives of communities in coastal areas. To understand TC variability and
changes in this region, “Climate change and Southern Hemisphere tropical
cyclones” International Initiative has been established in 1999. Over more than
a decade, significant progress has been made through dedicated international
efforts. A new high-quality TC data set has been created and subsequently
used to examine variability in TC activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).
Data from a number of national meteorological services were combined in a
high-quality tropical cyclone dataset, available through a specialised website.
Previously, many of these data have been only available to a small number of
individuals, and tended to be fragmented and inconsistent across national
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