Impact of Radiance Data Assimilation on Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Thane Using WRF-3DVAR Modelling System - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 384

RAD simulation that the system is very much close to the Tamil Nadu coast at
00 UTC of 30 th December 2011 and crossed the coast after 3-4 hours delay
from the observed landfall. However, other simulations show the system away
from the Tamil Nadu coast and moved northward. The VDEs are significantly
more in the CNTL (525 km) and GTS (339 km) simulations as compared to
the RAD simulation (179 km). As per the IMD observation, the severe cyclonic
system weakened into a depression at 1200 UTC of 30 th December near Salem
(Tamil Nadu lat. 11.6 N, lon. 78.2 E). The RAD (Fig. 2l) more accurately
predict position of the storm (12.25°N; 79.32°E) as compared with the CNTL
(16.06°N; 81.9° E) and GTS (14.25°N; 80.52°E) in Fig. 2j and k respectively.
From Table 2, it is seen that the VDEs are significantly reduced in RAD
Fig. 2: Mean sea level pressure (MSLP; hPa with contour interval 2) at model initial
time from (a) FNL; (b) GTS and (c) RAD valid at 00 UTC 26 December 2011. Model
simulated MSLP (48 hrs) from (d) CNTL; (e) GTS and (f) RAD valid at 00 UTC 28
December 2011. Similarly, (g-i) and (j-l) are same as (d-f) but valid at 00 and 12 UTC
30 December 2011 (96 hrs and 108 hrs respectively).